The automotive revenue pool will significantly increase and diversify toward on-demand mobility services and data-driven services. Driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and feature upgrades, new business models could expand automotive revenue pools by about 30 percent, adding up to $1.5 trillion. They are certainly not deterministic in nature but should help industry players better prepare for the uncertainty by discussing potential future states. The forecasts should thus be interpreted as a projection of the most probable assumptions across all four trends, based on our current understanding. This study aims to make the imminent changes more tangible.
To that end, our eight key perspectives on the “2030 automotive revolution” are aimed at providing scenarios concerning what kind of changes are coming and how they will affect traditional vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, potential new players, regulators, consumers, markets, and the automotive value chain. Given the widespread understanding that game-changing disruption is already on the horizon, there is still no integrated perspective on how the industry will look in 10 to 15 years as a result of these trends. Most industry players and experts agree that the four trends will reinforce and accelerate one another, and that the automotive industry is ripe for disruption. These forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends in the automotive sector: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity. Digitization, increasing automation, and new business models have revolutionized other industries, and automotive will be no exception. Today’s economies are dramatically changing, triggered by development in emerging markets, the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies, and changing consumer preferences around ownership.
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